Several years ago, Josh Schott started a weekly feature on the now-defunct Country Perspective blog that asked a simple question: Based on Billboard’s country airplay charts, just how good (or bad) is country radio at this very moment? In the spirit of the original feature, I decided to try my hand at evaluating the state of the radio myself.
The methodology is as follows: Each song that appears is assigned a score based on its review score. 0/10 songs get the minimum score (-5), 10/10 songs get the maximum (+5), and so on. The result (which can range from +250 to -250) gives you an idea of where things stand on the radio.
This week’s official numbers are from Mediabase’s August 26th publication. Without further ado, let’s crunch some numbers!
Best Song (tie): “Drunk Girl” and “Burn Out,” 10/10
Worst Song: “One That Got Away,” 1/10
Mode Score: 0 (16 songs)
Gone:
- Lady Antebellum, “Heart Break” (recurrent)
- Justin Moore, “Kinda Don’t Care” (recurrent)
- Keith Urban ft. Julia Michaels, “Coming Home” (recurrent)
- Little Big Town, “Summer Fever” (recurrent)
Leaving:
- Brett Young, “Mercy” (down from #5 to #8)
- Morgan Evans, “Kiss Somebody” (down from #1 to #10)
- Chris Lane ft. Tori Kelly, “Take Back Home Girl” (down from #6 to #20)
- Brothers Osborne, “Shoot Me Straight” (down from #28 to #30)
In Real Trouble:
- Travis Denning, “David Ashley Parker From Powder Springs” (down from #35 to #36, gained only 9 spins and lost points this week, passed by four other songs)
In Some Trouble:
- Craig Campbell, “See You Try” (up from #39 to #37, but starting to age and hasn’t gained more than 200 points a week since the Pulse restarted)
- Granger Smith, “You’re In It” (up from #41 to #39, but has turned in three straight weeks of sub-200 point gains)
- Aaron Watson, “Run Wild Horses” (up from #42 to #40, but starting to age and gained less than 200 points this week)
- Rodney Atkins ft. The Fisk Jubilee Singers, “Caught Up In The Country” (up from #44 to #41, but starting to age and hasn’t gained more than 150 points since the Pulse restarted)
In No Trouble At All:
- Jake Owen, “Down To The Honkytonk” (up from #59 to #43)
- Eli Young Band, “Love Ain’t” (up from #57 to #45)
- Dustin Lynch, “Good Girl” (up from #40 to #33)
- Jon Pardi, “Night Shift” (up from #53 to #46)
Bubbling Under 50:
- Darius Rucker ft. Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and Charles Kelley, “Straight To Hell” (5/10)
- Maddie & Tae, “Friends Don’t” (4/10)
On The Way:
- Chase Rice, “All Eyes On You”
- Danielle Bradbery ft. Thomas Rhett, “Goodbye Summer”
- Keith Urban, “Never Comin’ Down”
- Kenny Chesney ft. Mindy Smith, “Better Boat”
Overall Thoughts: If you needed any more indications that summer was ending, look no further than country radio! The powers that be have taken a plunger to the Mediabase charts, touching off a major shakeup by flushing out the old tunes and aggressively rotating in a new fall lineup:
- Lady A, Justin Moore, Urban, and LBT have been stuffed into the filing cabinet of history.
- Evans, Brett Young, and Lane will join the above four next week, and Aldean will begin to fade after a two-week #1 run on Billboard.
- Bryan and Old Dominion, both sporting distinctly summery singles, have been making a major push to jump up and grab #1 before the leaves change color. Don’t expect either one to make it past mid-September. (The clock is ticking on Dickerson’s “Blue Tacoma” for similar reasons.)
- Against all logic, Dylan Scott might have a small window of opportunity to grab a Mediabase #1. Still, at 47 weeks old, expect the Grim Reaper to claim “Hooked” any day now.
- Carrie Underwood rebounded with a strong week to regain her bullet and jump up to #6, but this song’s been so all-over-the-map that it’s hard to say where it will end up.
- At the other end of the chart, we saw Davis, Lynch, McCreery, Dan + Shay, Owen, EYB, Pardi, and even Cody Johnson turn in some sizable gains. (That’s why Campbell, Smith, Watson, and Atkins are in trouble: Either they find some traction soon, or they’ll be run over by the songs coming up fast behind them.)
Unfortunately, the songs rushing to fill the airplay void aren’t the greatest in the world (it seems like I’ve handed out a lot of 4/10 scores lately…), so while there’s enough quality in the Top 25 to make for a decent fall, I’m not optimistic about what’s coming this winter. Enjoy the radio while you can, boys and girls, because some storm clouds are moving in.
So what do you think? Are the numbers better or worse than you expected? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!
Kyle's Korner 